My latest obsession with the Polygon continues. I find this very interesting and I've decided to share some of the map overlays that I've created. The map above shows where exactly the 456 nuclear bombs exploded in relation to where I live. The green patch in the lower left is my national park. My town, Karkaraly, is in the upper-right hand corner of that green patch. The map below shows the distance to the village of Myrshik. Myrshik is in the middle of the small indentation on the left side of the Polygon (on the map above).
It is 83.5 miles to the village of Myrshik. It was estimated by the Americans living in that village that Ground Zero, where they detonated 116 above ground nuclear bombs, is around 15 miles away (around 100 miles from Karkaraly). I checked it on google maps and that is about right.
So the big question is, how far away from a nuclear bomb do you need to be when it goes off?
According to one site, from a 5 megaton bomb, skin is badly burned up to 15 miles from the explosion, skin is blistered up to 18 miles, and sunburn types of burns up to 23 miles away. The blast from a 5 megaton bomb could injure people up to 15 miles away. The first bomb that the Soviet Union exploded in the megaton range was in 1955. The explosions went continuous until 1991 (bombs were dropped between 1949-1955, but they were in the kiloton range).
The largest thermonuclear device ever tested, a 58 megaton bomb detonated on October 23, 1961, was NOT dropped here. The Soviet Union had another nuclear test site at Novaya Zemlya Island (in the Arctic). This site hosted 224 nuclear detonations.
At the Semipalatinsk Test Site, there were 116 atmospheric detonations (either air dropped or tower shots)- the other 340 were underground. A bomb exploded in the atmosphere produces a different effect than one that explodes at ground level.
An air burst usually produces more fire and blast-damage than a ground burst, which results in a big crater and more radioactive fallout.
The picture below shows the damage for a 5 megaton bomb.
A 20-megaton bomb increases the approximate ranges of damage described above to five, eight, sixteen and twenty-four miles.
A nuclear explosion causes both immediate radiation and residual radiation.
Immediate radiation is given off at the time of the explosion. It is dangerous only within two or three miles. If you were near the explosion without adequate protection and managed to survive the effects of blast and fire, you could still be seriously affected by immediate radiation.
Residual radiation is given off by the radioactive particles left as "fallout" after the explosion. F
allout doesn't come out of the sky like a gas and seep into everything. It can best be described as a fine to coarse sand carried by the winds. Because the wind direction varies at different heights above the ground, it is not possible to judge from the ground where the fallout will settle. It can settle in irregular patterns hundreds of miles from the explosion.
The fallout from a 5-megaton explosion could affect an area of 7,000 square miles. If nothing were done to gain protection during the period of high radioactivity, there would be a grave danger to life in that area.
The map below attempts to show some of the fallout patterns from the explosions here at the test site. However, at least 150 explosions, if not more, are missing from this map (guestimated from the dates on the map by the two Americans). And you can see that at least a couple carried down to Karkaraly. Without the data from the other explosions, its hard to see the full fallout effect.
Now can we trust these maps and those who made them? The answer is no. They are interesting and probably have some truth to them, but they can not be trusted wholly. The reason can be seen on the map below. First off, the boundary of the Polygon conveniently went around all towns and villages. Second, some of their data shows that the only affected areas were the areas within this made up boundary and that the problems were contained by this border. The map below shows the nuclear fallout areas in the area...but claims there is no fallout outside the polygon. All those villages on the edge of the polygon are safe presumably.
Also, I told you before that Karkaraly is in zone 4 of the radiation fallout. According to the Americans, they have seen maps that show these zones and they say there is no rhyme or reason to what area gets what zone (1-4). The fallout zones appear arbitrary. This doesn't mean Karkaraly deserves a higher zone (or lack of a zone), however. You simply can't trust the data.
Here is another view of the test sites. I saw the Americans again yesterday. They live in Myrshik. This village is on the map below and is near the Sary-Uzen drop zone. They told me they have spoken to some of the older people in town, who personally witnessed the detonations. They always happened on Sunday mornings at 10am. The day before, Russian soldiers would come through the village and tell everyone the explosion would be the next day. They told them to make sure their doors were shut, their stove tops were covered, and that they remained outside their homes during the explosion (so the home wouldn't collapse and hurt them).
The first time it happened at this drop zone, the people of Myrshik saw two planes in the sky. They saw the bomb drop and the planes veer off sharply as soon as it was dropped. First they saw the light and described it as a second sun. Then they felt the heat on their faces. Then they felt the wind from the blast. Then they saw the mushroom cloud. Then they felt the shock from the blast and all their homes shook for minutes.
Of course, being outside and exposed to the radiation was bad for them. After the explosion they went about their day as if nothing had happened. Days later when people began to die, the harsh reality of what was happening became apparent. But the people there still don't fully understand the effects of radiation. They never moved away because they don't have the money to. According to the Americans, there isn't a single person in the village that is healthy. Everybody has problems (kidney, heart, skin, etc). Three generations of radiation problems and cell mutations. But the older people there claim they have gotten used to the radiation, which is probably true. After all, they have lived in a radiated area for most of their lives and they are still alive. But most people aren't that lucky and die very young- even today.
The Americans have their work cut out for them. When we were up at Lake Baceen a week or two ago, we wondered if people in Karkaraly would be able to see the blasts at the site. They speculated that maybe they could- but only the light. But who really knows.
The Americans are also trying to study other effects of living around the polygon. Kazakhstan has the fourth highest suicide rate in the world (USA is 40th). But even within Kazakhstan, the Karkarly region and the other regions around the Polygon stand out with much higher rates. Yesterday they got some data from the local police. So far this year, 84 people have committed suicide in the Karkaraly region. The police said there were more but they go unreported or the family claims it was something else. The Americans are still finding the data to see how many people have died in the region this year (100 people have died in the city of Karkaraly, but the city population only makes up a quarter of the regional population). They are interested in trying to draw a correlation between life in this area, the polygon, and a high suicide rate. It is interesting but challenging, as there are many variables involved.
On a completely different and positive note, I hope everyone has a wonderful Thanksgiving! :)
